تاملی بر وضعیت شکنندگی اجتماعی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
گروه علوم اجتماعی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی ، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد ، مشهد ، ایران
10.22034/jcsc.2026.2083837.2913
چکیده
شکنندگی اجتماعی به وضعیتی پیشابحرانی اشاره دارد که در آن، جامعه در اثر فرسایش هم‌زمانِ ظرفیت‌های هنجاری، مشروعیت نهادی و هماهنگی اجتماعی، توان مؤثر خود را برای تنظیم تنش‌ها، مدیریت تعارض‌ها و جذب شوک‌ها از دست داده است، بی‌آنکه هنوز به اختلال آشکار نظم، خشونت گسترده یا فروپاشی نهادی منجر شده باشد. این مقاله با تکیه بر چارچوب‌های نظری کلاسیک و معاصر و بهره‌گیری از شواهد داده‌محور بین‌المللی، به بازاندیشی مفهومی و تحلیل تجربی وضعیت شکنندگی اجتماعی در ایران می‌پردازد. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که شکنندگی اجتماعی در ایران نه پیامد شوک‌های ناگهانی، بلکه حاصل فرایندهای تدریجی و انباشتی است که در بستر نابرابری ساختاری، ضعف حکمرانی، فرسایش مشروعیت و افت سرمایه اجتماعی بوجود آمده است. تحلیل روندهای شکنندگی بر اساس شاخص جهانی ارزیابی ریسک (IRI) و گزارش‌های OECD حاکی از آن است که ایران طی یک دهه اخیر از سطح شکنندگی متوسط به وضعیت شکنندگی بالا و مرزی حرکت کرده و این وضعیت از سال‌های پس از ۲۰۱۹ به الگویی نسبتاً پایدار تبدیل شده است. برآیند نتایج، ایران امروز را در وضعیت « پیشابحرانی و در آستانه شکنندگی » نشان می دهد ؛ وضعیتی که هنوز به بحران تمام‌عیار نینجامیده، اما حاشیه ایمنی جامعه به‌شدت کاهش یافته است.خروج از این وضعیت مستلزم مداخله هم‌زمان در سه سطح شامل کاهش فشارهای ساختاری اقتصادی، ترمیم مشروعیت و کارآمدی حکمرانی، و بازسازی سرمایه اجتماعی و اعتماد عمومی در چارچوب یک نقشه جامع سیاستیِ داده مبناست.
کلیدواژه‌ها
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